You Will Get Covid 19


There is no vaccine on the horizon.  Even if a promising vaccine existed today, it would take several months of trials to reach approval.  Once approved, it must still be manufactured.  The US does not have the capacity to produce vaccines at the scale required to vaccinate all Americans within a four month period.  Our best hope would be to utilize excess capacity from countries like China, whose goodwill our government appear unconcerned with preserving. 

If a vaccine cant be expected for 18 months, what are the chances that you can make it through that timeframe without contracting Covid?  States are beginning to lax restrictions, and governors from states like Texas have expressed an unwillingness to re-apply those restrictions, even if cases of Covid spike.  Their sentiment is no without merit.  The level of economic contraction experienced during quarantine would lead to depression-level conditions in that eighteen month timeframe.  

There is no cohesive approach.  The US did not apply an “isolate and contain” strategy from the top-down like South Korea, because it lacked the leadership and public will to do so. Even without a cohesive approach, it appears that most governors have conceded acceptance for some level of spread in exchange for economic recovery.  The predominant approach is  to keep the rate of new contractions at a low enough level that ICU resources are not eclipsed.  The implied concession is that the majority of people will contract the virus before receiving a vaccine.    

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